Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of joint measures led by Fangcang shelter hospitals in response to COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China

Abstract Objective To quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of Fangcang shelter hospitals, designated and time interval from illness onset to diagnosis toward prevention control COVID-19 epidemic. Methods We used SEIAR SEIA-CQFH warehouse models simulate two-period epidemic in Wuhan calculate dependent basic reproduction numbers (BRNs) symptomatic infected individuals, asymptomatic exposed community-isolated individuals. Scenarios that varied terms maximum open beds hospitals intervals visit were considered assess optimal measures. Results The BRN decreased 4.50 on Jan 22, 2020 0.18 March 18, 2020. Without cumulative cases deaths would increase by 18.58 51.73%, respectively. If number 1/2 1/4, 178.04 92.1%, hospital was 4 days, 2.79 6.19%, not established, reduced visiting became 268.97%. Conclusion declining BRNs indicate high joint measures led are crucial need be rolled out globally, especially when medical resources limited.